Allendale survey shows higher corn acreage
A major acreage survey of producers in 29 states suggests a year to year increase in planted area for corn against a decrease for soybeans.
While the survey has changes in the acreage mix, Allendale Chief Strategist Rich Nelson says the data implies most producers are sticking with their normal rotation and those that are making changes are doing so because of unknowns, “In terms of all of these crops, they have concerns about margins, especially for 2019 production. The simple is, for the corn side, we haven’t yet had December corn really move to a price most producers would suggest is profitable.”
Nelson says another unknown is the trade situation with China, “The other big thing with the unknown is maybe a small amount of concern with the trade discussions going on, which, hopefully, we’ll get some progress by the end of this month and the soybean side is really the main concern right now.”
The start of planting could be delayed by wet, cool weather in many key U.S. growing areas.
Producers want to plant, according to Nelson, even if it takes until the first week of June but prevent plant acres could be a lot larger this year than last year, “Our soil moisture profile is similar to 2009, ’10, and ’11, so in this case, we probably will a movement from last year’s prevented plant of just under 2 million acres. I do think you’re looking at something in the 4 (million) to 7 million acre range.”
Nelson says that while prevent plant discussions usually start in the northern Plains, this year, high soil moisture levels from Ohio to the Western Corn Belt are expected to be a factor.
Allendale’s annual survey of producers has corn acres at 91.475 million, up 2.346 million from 2018, and soybeans at 84.263 million acres, down 4.933 million. Both are below the USDA’s projections from this year’s Ag Outlook Forum of 92 million and 85 million acres, respectively. All wheat acreage is pegged at 47.414 million acres, 386,000 less than last year, with winter wheat at 31.492 million, 1.043 million lower, “other” spring wheat at 13.82 million acres, up 620,000, and durum at 2.102 million, 37,000 higher. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum had all wheat acreage at 47 million.
The survey expects corn harvested area to be 84.12 million acres, with implied production of 14.851 billion bushels, using a trend line yield of 176.5 bushels per acre. For soybeans, harvest area is projected at 83.572 million acres with implied production of 4.212 billion bushels from a trend line yield of 50.4 bushels per acre. Wheat harvest area is seen at 40.15 million acres with implied production of 1.927 billion bushels and a trend line yield of 48.0 bushels per acre.
The USDA’s prospective planting report is out Friday, March 29th and the first crop progress and condition report of the season will be released Monday, April 1st.