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Expect market corrections after a long government shutdown

Brenda Boetel takes questions during the 2019 Wisconsin Agribusiness Classic

A market analyst says a lengthy government shutdown might lead to bigger commodity market corrections after federal agencies return to work. Brenda Boetel with the University of Wisconsin-River Falls says, “The longer this goes on, the longer we’re operating on old data, the greater the market volatility is going to be.”

Boetel says without USDA’s usual reports, the market will be making decisions from old data and data from private industry, which might have to be adjusted when USDA reports resume. “If the size isn’t what the analysts were expecting, or what the private industry said, we’re going to see greater market corrections at that time, so the longer this goes on, the greater potential there is for volatility and for a bigger market correction later on.”

Boetel says reports on supply and demand, the winter wheat and canola seedings, and the corn stocks report are all important for determining 2019 expected crop acreage. She says some of the data hasn’t been updated since September.

Boetel spoke to the Wisconsin Agribusiness Classic Thursday in Madison, Wisconsin.