USDA changes might not last long

The USDA has raised its new crop ending stocks guess for corn, while tightening the balance sheet for soybeans. This report used the June acreage numbers and data from the department’s weekly crop progress and condition reports, but does not include results from the ongoing acreage resurvey of producers in 14 states to be published in August.

The USDA has 2019/20 new crop corn ending stocks at 2.010 billion, raising projections for old crop ending stocks to 2.340 billion, the 2019 crop to 13.875 billion bushels, and feed demand, while leaving ethanol and export use estimates unchanged. The average yield is seen at 166 bushels per acre, unchanged on the month. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $3.70 per bushel, compared to $3.80 in June and $3.60 for 2018/19.

New crop soybean ending stocks are pegged at 795 million bushels, a month to month cut of 250 million because of lower expectations for old crop ending stocks, down to 1.050 billion, and a smaller 2019 crop at 3.845 billion bushels against slower export demand. The average yield was down 1 bushel per acre at 48.5. The average 2019/20 farm price is pegged at $8.40 per bushel, compared to $8.25 a month ago and $8.50 in the previous marketing year.

Wheat ending stocks are seen at 1 billion bushels with a higher crop guess, to 1.921 billion bushels, canceled out by lower old crop carryover and higher feed and export demand estimates. The 2019/20 average yield is seen at 50 bushels per acre, up 1.3 from the previous guess. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $5.20 per bushel, compared to $5.10 last month and $5.16 last marketing year.

The current U.S. marketing year for wheat started June 1st and the new marketing year for beans and corn gets underway September 1st.

The USDA’s adjustments to the domestic supply and demand numbers had an impact on the global numbers.

For old crop corn, the USDA lowered the world export outlook, but expects that shortfall to be made up by higher exports from Argentina and Brazil, while also raising the production estimate for Argentina, while leaving new crop exports steady, but upping the projection for Ukraine. New crop world production and ending stocks for were above a month ago because of increased expectations for the U.S.

The USDA left old crop U.S. soybean exports unchanged, with a higher estimate for Argentina canceling out a lower guess for Brazil, while reducing new crop U.S. exports and increasing outlooks for South America. Lower U.S. production is expected to lead to a tighter global balance sheet, but old and new crop import projections for China were steady, even as African Swine Fever has an impact on soybean demand.

New crop world wheat production was down on the month because of lowered expectations for several export competitors, which are expected to boost U.S. sales.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out August 12th.