USDA expected to lower corn, soybean crop guesses

Most analysts expect the USDA to lower its corn and soybean production
estimates Monday. The big question for both crops over the course of the
growing season has been planted acreage, with corn and soybean planting
historically slow this year because of extremely wet conditions in many key
U.S. growing areas, which either changed producers planting plans or washed out
fields entirely. This round of numbers will include the initial prevent plant
numbers and results from the USDA’s July acreage resurvey but won’t fully
factor in the impact of recent dry weather in the Corn Belt.

According to DTN, on average, corn production is seen at 13.164 billion bushels, down 711 million bushels from July, along with a reduction in the average yield guess to 165.3 bushels per acre, and tighter new crop U.S. ending stocks because of the reduction production guess. Estimates for the corn crop vary widely. Soybeans are projected at 3.783 billion bushels, modestly lower than last month, also with a lower average yield estimate at 47.5 bushels per acre, but with higher ending stocks because of slow export demand. Not many changes are expected to the balance sheet for U.S. wheat.

Globally, 2018/19 ending stocks are expected to be a little bit larger for beans, corn, and wheat, while the 2019/20 supply could be tighter for corn and wheat, while soybeans are expected to be higher.

The reports are out Monday, August 12th at Noon Eastern/11 Central.