News
USDA increases 2019 corn crop projection
The USDA has raised it’s 2019 corn production outlook slightly. The crop got off to a rough start with an historically slow planting pace because of historically wet weather, transitioning to slightly drier than normal conditions in many areas during key phases of development.
The department currently has this year’s corn crop at 13.901 billion bushels with an average yield of 169.5 bushels per acre, both up from July, with planted area of 90.005 million acres and harvested area of 82.017 million. The production and yield guesses are down from last year, with the USDA expecting lower yields in many of the key production states, including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota, against a higher yield for Missouri. In 2018, corn totaled 14.420 billion bushels with an average yield of 176.4 bushels per acre and harvested area of 81.74 million acres,
Soybeans are pegged at 3.680 billion bushels with an average yield of 48.5 bushels per acre on planted area of 76.7 million acres and harvested area of 75.866 million. A year ago, production totaled 4.574 billion bushels with an average yield of 51.6 bushels per acre and harvested area of 88.11 million.
The USDA raised its all wheat production estimate to 1.98 billion bushels, up 5% on the year, with a 12% increase for winter wheat to 1.326 billion bushels cancelling out a 4% decrease for spring wheat at 596.660 million. For winter wheat, the average yield is seen at 53.2 bushels per acre, compared to 51.8 a month ago, with harvested area of 24.924 million acres, and for spring wheat, the average yield is seen at 49.2 bushels per acre, compared to 47.2 million last month, with harvested area of 12.125 million. The 2019 hard red winter crop is seen at 839.834 million bushels, with soft red at 257.489 million and white winter at 228.9 million, while this year’s hard red spring crop is pegged at 565.753 million bushels with white spring at 30.907 million. In 2018, winter wheat totaled 1.184 billion bushels with an average yield of 47.9 bushels per acre and harvested area of 24.742 million acres, with spring wheat at 623.232 million bushels with an average yield of 48.3 bushels per acre and harvested area of 12.896 million acres.
These numbers will probably change, with development slower than average in much of the Corn Belt and do not reflect the recent dry weather.
This round of acreage numbers is different from the Farm Service Agency, which the USDA says is historically incomplete in August. The FSA has total planted area for corn at 85.871 million acres, including prevent plant of 11.211 million, with soybeans at 74.005 million acres, including prevent plant of 4.351 million. All wheat acreage was reported by the FSA at 46.302 million, with prevent plant at 2.21 million.
Comparisons for Brownfield states:
Arkansas: Corn: 135 million bushels, compared to 116.75 million in
2018; average yield of 180 bushels per acre, compared to 181 a year ago;
harvested area of 750,000 acres, compared to 645,000 last year; Soybeans:
135.15 million bushels, compared to 165.24 million in 2018; average yield of 51
bushels per acre, unchanged from a year ago; harvested area of 2.65 million
acres, compared to 3.24 million last year; Winter Wheat: 3.6 million bushels,
compared to 5.225 million in 2018; average yield of 60 bushels per acre,
compared to 60 a month ago and 55 a year ago; harvested area of 60,000 acres,
compared to 95,000 last year
Illinois: Corn: 1.892 billion bushels, compared to 2.279 billion in
2018; average yield of 181 bushels per acre, compared to 210 a year ago;
harvested area of 10.45 million acres, compared to 10.85 million last year;
Soybeans: 546.7 million bushels, compared to 698.75 million in 2018; average
yield of 55 bushels per acre, compared to 65 a year ago; harvested area of 9.94
million acres, compared to 10.75 million last year; Winter Wheat: 38.35 million
bushels, compared to 36.96 million in 2018; average yield of 65 bushels per
acre, compared to 63 a month ago and 66 a year ago; harvested area of 590,000
acres, compared to 560,000 last year
Indiana: Corn: 813.4 million bushels, compared to 982.8 million in
2018; average yield of 166 bushels per acre, compared to 189 a year ago;
harvested area of 4.9 million acres, compared to 5.2 million last year;
Soybeans: 268.5 million bushels, compared to 346.32 million in 2018; average
yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 58.5 a year ago; harvested area of
5.37 million acres, compared to 5.92 million last year; Winter Wheat: 17.42
million bushels, compared to 18.46 million in 2018; average yield of 67 bushels
per acre, compared to 67 a month ago and 71 a year ago; harvested area of
260,000 acres, unchanged from last year
Iowa: Corn: 2.521 billion bushels, compared to 2.509 billion in 2018;
average yield of 191 bushels per acre, compared to 196 a year ago; harvested
area of 13.2 million acres, compared to 12.8 million last year; Soybeans:
502.15 million bushels, compared to 564.87 million in 2018; average yield of 55
bushels per acre, compared to 57 a year ago; harvested area of 9.13 million
acres, compared to 9.91 million last year
Michigan: Corn: 263.5 million bushels, compared to 296.82 million in
2018; average yield of 155 bushels per acre, compared to 153 a year ago;
harvested area of 1.7 million acres, compared to 1.94 million last year;
Soybeans: 77.4 million bushels, compared to 109.44 million in 2018; average
yield of 45 bushels per acre, compared to 48 a year ago; harvested area of 1.72
million acres, compared to 2.28 million last year; Winter Wheat: 37.73 million
bushels, compared to 35.72 million in 2018; average yield of 77 bushels per
acre, compared to 75 a month ago and 76 a year ago
Minnesota: Corn: 1.28 billion bushels, compared to 1.363 billion in
2018; average yield of 173 bushels per acre, compared to 182 a year ago;
harvested area of 7.4 million acres, compared to 7.49 million last year;
Soybeans: 313.72 million bushels, compared to 389.355 million in 2018; average
yield of 46 bushels per acre, compared to 50.5 a year ago; harvested area of
6.82 million acres, compared to 7.71 million last year; Spring Wheat: 91.76
million bushels, compared to 92.63 million in 2018; average yield of 62 bushels
per acre, compared to 62 a month ago and 59 a year ago; harvested area of 1.48
million acres, compared to 1.57 million last year
Missouri: Corn: 489.6 million bushels, compared to 466.2 million in
2018; average yield of 160 bushels per acre, compared to 140 a year ago;
harvested area of 3.06 million acres, compared to 3.33 million last year;
Soybeans: 226.35 million bushels, compared to 261 million in 2018; average
yield of 45 bushels per acre, unchanged from a year ago; harvested area of 5.03
million acres, compared to 5.8 million last year; Winter Wheat: 28.2 million
bushels, compared to 30.68 million in 2018; average yield of 60 bushels per
acre, compared to 60 a month ago and 59 a year ago; harvested area of 470,000
acres, compared to 520,000 last year
Nebraska: Corn: 1.795 billion bushels, compared to 1.788 billion in
2018; average yield of 186 bushels per acre, compared to 192 a year ago;
harvested area of 9.65 million acres, compared to 9.31 million last year;
Soybeans: 287.1 million bushels, compared to 333.35 million in 2018; average
yield of 58 bushels per acre, compared to 59 a year ago; harvested area of 4.95
million acres, compared to 5.65 million last year; Winter Wheat: 56.26 million
bushels, compared to 49.49 million in 2018; average yield of 58 bushels per
acre, compared to 53 a month ago and 49 a year ago; harvested area of 970
million acres, compared to 1.01 million last year
Ohio: Corn: 414.4 million bushels, compared to 617.1 million in 2018;
average yield of 160 bushels per acre, compared to 187 a year ago; harvested
area of 2.59 million acres, compared to 3.3 million last year; Soybeans: 200.16
million bushels, compared to 288.84 million in 2018; average yield of 48
bushels per acre, compared to 58 a year ago; harvested area of 4.17 million
acres, compared to 4.98 million last year; Winter Wheat: 25.62 million bushels,
compared to 33.75 million in 2018; average yield of 61 bushels per acre,
compared to 64 a month ago and 75 a year ago; harvested area of 420,000 acres,
compared to 450,000 last year
South Dakota: Corn: 629.57 million bushels, compared to 777.6 million
in 2018; average yield of 157 bushels per acre, compared to 160 a year ago;
harvested area of 4.01 million acres, compared to 4.86 million last year;
Soybeans: 155.7 million bushels, compared to 256.68 million in 2018; average
yield of 45 bushels per acre, compared to 46 a year ago; harvested area of 3.46
million acres, compared to 5.58 million last year; Winter Wheat: 37.96 million
bushels, compared to 31.68 million in 2018; average yield of 52 bushels per
acre, compared to 54 a month ago and 48 a year ago; Spring Wheat: 36.19 million
bushels, compared to 40.53 million in 2018; average yield of 47 bushels per
acre, compared to 48 a month ago and 42 a year ago; harvested area of 770,000 acres,
compared to 965,000 last year
Tennessee: Corn: 160.08 million bushels, compared to 115.92 million in
2018; average yield of 174 bushels per acre, compared to 168 a year ago;
harvested area of 920,000 acres, compared to 690,000 last year; Soybeans: 73.5
million acres, compared to 76.82 million in 2018; average yield of 45 bushels
per acre, compared to 50 a year ago; harvested area of 1.47 million acres,
compared to 1.67 million last year; Winter Wheat: 14.85 million bushels,
compared to 18.525 million in 2018; average yield of 66 bushels per acre,
compared to 66 a month ago and 65 a year ago; harvested area of 225,000 acres,
compared to 285,000 last year
Wisconsin:
Corn: 468.6 million bushels, compared to 545.24 million in 2018; 165 bushels
per acre, compared to 172 a year ago; harvested area of 2.84 million acres,
compared to 3.17 million last year; Soybeans: 83.66 million bushels, compared to
105.84 million in 2018; average yield of 47 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a
year ago; harvested area of 1.78 million acres, compared to 2.16 million last
year; Winter Wheat: 10.71 million bushels, compared to 14.2 million in 2018;
average yield of 63 bushels per acre, compared to 66 a month ago and 71 a year
ago; harvested area of 170,000 acres, compared to 200,000 last year
