Electrification of transportation and heating systems will drive a steady increase in New England’s annual energy usage across the next decade, potentially shifting its grid from a summer-peaking system to a winter-peaking one, according to a new report from the region’s independent system operator.

New England net annual energy use is anticipated to grow 1.8% annually from 2024 to 2033, according to an annual 10-year forecast of capacity, energy, loads and transmission ISO New England published Wednesday.

The grid operator expects “steady growth in net annual energy use as state policy goals for carbon emissions reductions drive the increased electrification of heating systems and transportation in the region,” New England ISO officials wrote in a blog post.

Total annual energy use will grow from more than 119,000 GWh in 2024 to 140,000 GWh in 2033, according to the CELT report. EVs will require almost 15,200 GWh of energy in 2033, compared with about 325 GWh this year; heating electrification is expected to account for almost 8,000 GWh in 2033, versus 640 GWh this year, the grid operator said.

The report takes into consideration accounts for reductions in grid use resulting from energy efficiency improvements and behind-the-meter solar generation.

While New England has traditionally seen peak demand occur during the summer, by 2033 the ISO expects the summer and winter peaks to be roughly equal, with the potential for higher winter peaks depending on weather.

Under typical summer weather conditions, net peak demand is expected to rise at an annual rate of 1% through 2033, according to the report. Under typical winter conditions, net peak demand is expected to rise by an average of 3.1%, or at a 3.3% rate for colder weather.

The CELT report shows the New England grid’s net summer peak, which reached of about 24 GW in 2023, rising to about 27 GW in 2033. The net winter peak is expected to will rise from about 18.4 GW last year to 26.7 GW in 2033.

The resource mix available to meet rising demand is also changing in New England.

The ISO said in March that the region’s electric grid could require up to $1 billion in annual transmission investments through 2050 to support the clean energy transition. And between now and 2040, the ISO expects its system to move from 6 GW of solar capacity to 28 GW, with most of that behind the meter. 

Gas will fall from about 45% of New England’s electricity production in 2022 to about 12% in 2040, according to ISO projections, while renewables will rise from about 11% to 56% across the same period.

There are almost 40 GW of resources in the ISO’s interconnection queue, 46% of which are battery storage.