Dive Brief:
- Next-generation geothermal could economically provide up to 90 GW of U.S. clean energy by 2050 and play a significant role in decarbonizing the nation’s economy, the U.S. Department of Energy concluded in a “Pathways to Commercial Liftoff” report published Tuesday.
- There is about 3.7 GW of conventional geothermal power operating in the U.S. today, limited by the need to locate facilities at naturally occurring reservoirs of hot rocks that can be used to generate steam. Developers of next-generation geothermal create the reservoirs themselves using “technology, supply chains, and workforces” translated from the oil and gas sector, DOE said.
- Deploying an initial 2-5 GW of advanced geothermal to achieve “liftoff” would require $20 billion-$25 billion in investment through 2030, according to the report. “An additional $225 billion-$250 billion in investment [through 2050] can help deploy next-generation geothermal technology to its full potential,” DOE said.
Dive Insight:
New geothermal development techniques and technologies could help the U.S. increase current installed capacity by more than 20 times, DOE concluded in its pathways report.
There is “enormous potential” for geothermal expansion, Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said in a statement. “With strong public-private partnerships we can lower costs for this hot technology to expand access for cleaner, more reliable power to communities across the nation.”
“Next-generation geothermal can economically provide 90 GW of the 700 to 900 GW of [additional] clean firm power needed for a decarbonized economy by 2050,” according to the DOE report. Other technical and market factors could triple expected deployment, it said.
Currently, most geothermal power production occurs in the Western U.S. due to the location of appropriate reservoirs, but DOE said advanced-generation deployment techniques mean that by 2050 opportunities could exist in at least 18 states.
Next-gen geothermal technologies include the use of advanced drilling and hydraulic fracturing practices that allow generation to be located in places where hot rock was previously impermeable.
“Because there is no unique geologic constraint to adhere to, next-generation geothermal technologies have vast potential,” DOE said.
DOE’s Pathways report also concludes next-generation geothermal “can soon be broadly cost-competitive with other energy sources.”
“Reasonable advances expected in drilling, reservoir engineering, and resource exploration” could reduce the national average cost of enhanced geothermal systems to $60-$70/MWh by 2030, according to the report. DOE said those price levels imply profit margins of $10-$30/MWh at current power purchase agreement prices.
DOE in 2022 announced a goal to reduce the costs of enhanced geothermal systems by 90%, to $45/MWh by 2035. “Recent technical successes indicate the industry is on track to achieving ambitious targets,” according to the report.
The agency is investing in the new technology. In February, DOE announced up to $40 million for two enhanced geothermal systems pilot projects, one led by Chevron New Energies in California and the other by Fervo Energy in Texas.
In a related development, Sen. Mike Lee, R-Indiana, announced March 14 that he and Sens. James Risch, R-Idaho and Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., had introduced the Geothermal Energy Optimization Act to accelerate the adoption of geothermal energy in the U.S.
“By introducing this bill, we aim to break down the bureaucratic barriers that have stifled innovation and investment in geothermal technology for far too long,” Lee said. “Our legislation will streamline the permitting process, making geothermal energy a more feasible option for supplying baseload power to communities across the United States.”
